Time For A Better Site News Method
Trying out a better way to disseminate news related to the development and progression of the site.
Trying out a better way to disseminate news related to the development and progression of the site.
Latest Contest Winner: dibbs!
Site Bug Fixes
Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.
Some more American Idol contestants went home last night. Say good bye to:
Antonella, Jared Cotter, Sabrina Sloan, Sundance Head.
For those of you searching for news to help in your trading of OS X Leopard ship dates, here's a couple sites running their own (informal) predictions:
Apple OS X 10.5 ("Leopard") release date announcement imminent - says our calendar
OS X Leopard Release Date Prediction Tracker
There's an interesting article on VentureBeat about using Wikipedia when building your site. Thought it was a relevant read based on how much we use Wikipedia for Stock and Index backgrounds here. Now, if only we could automate the importing of relevant stock information.
Chris Abraham gave us a great little writeup on his blog as a prediction market he recommends:
Really basic but also really easy to use. Instead of being a very specialized and highly-categorized prediction market based on politics or entertainment, this market is free form, which I think is a much more powerful strategy. The look and feel are very basic but I was up and running within minutes. Also, they offer you lots of money to trade at first and I wasted it all in one trade called, "Lindsay Lohan Sex Video," which is a market as to whether "a sex video of Lindsay Lohan surfaces on the Internet." I really like it.
Check out the rest of his blog, he covers a wide range of topics including social networking, politics, and blogging. Good stuff!
We're linked from NewMexicoMatters.com with a bunch of other prediction markets. Additionally, they also highlighted our Bill Richardson Democratic Presidential Nominee stock. Thanks.
For what it's worth, here are some more sites predicting when Mac OS X Leopard will ship:
Mac OS X Leopard 10.5 - a May 2007 release?
More Leopard release date tomfoolery
SPECULATION: Leopard Coming out May 11, 2007? I doubt it...
I was doing some browsing around alexa.com the other day and came across some interesting stats. It appears that around the time we started rolling out the new site design, March 2nd, we also started picking up more page views. In fact, so much more that we surpassed inklingmarkets.com for most of the week. As anyone that does web publishing knows alexa scores should be taken with a grain of salt, but at least it's good to know that the new design is working well so far.
I'm just catching up on my blogging and found out we were mentioned on MIdasOracle.org by Chris. F. Masse this past Friday. Chris Masse and MidasOracle are fantastic resources and it should be one of the first stops for anyone interested in learning more about the mechanics and science behind prediction markets. I visit the site daily and have it bookmarked in netnewswire. Thanks Chris!
There's been numerous cosmetic site changes and bug fixes over the last few days that are in preparation for starting the new contest. I have a couple more things to tick off before we get it started. If you haven't guessed it so far, the grand prize will be an iPod Shuffle. I know I've been saying it for a while, but it's coming at last.
I'll also be adding some new stocks from the latest round of suggestions.
I'm starting to open up the database and the first thing up is xml and rss data feeds for each stock. There are orange buttons next to the name that will give you the current stock info.
The use for the RSS link should be straightforward. You can subscribe to any of your favorite stocks in news readers like NetNewsWire, BlogLines, Google Reader, etc. This will allow you to better track stock price movements without having to visit the site.
The xml is more raw but also contains more data. If you were interested in incorporating stock data from RealityMarkets.com on your own site you would use that link and parse it to your needs. For instance, you could also use the data to create a widget for something like your myspace account. The possibilities are endless.
Have fun and let me know if you end up using the xml data. I'm interested in seeing what people do with it.
Economist Magazine is running a contest called Project Red Stripe to solicit new and innovative ideas for the magazine. Prediction Markets are one of the top ideas at the moment. Midas Oracale has some comments on it as does Andrew Leigh.
Jobe Roberts wrote up a blog post at SensoryMetrics.com on our Leopard Release Prediction Market.
From their site:
SensoryMetrics is led by a team of experienced professionals - former scientists from Nortel Networks and executives from anbiun - a company that invented personalized media for web-based commerce.SensoryMetrics consultants are available for strategic User Experience design, innovation and IPR development.
Thanks Jobe!
Here's a blog called The Hollywood Gossip I came across that has some good Dancing With The Stars commentary that should help with your prediction trades.
Index: Dancing With The Stars 2007
March Madness is over so how did RealityMarkets.com do in predicting the the 2007 NCAA National Champions? Pretty good it would appear. We had Florida as the top stock since we launched the index at the beginning of the tournament.
Someone still thinks Marian Hossa is going to pull out 100 points by the end of the season. It's going to go to the wire...
On Wednesday we had the busiest trading day in RealityMarkets.com history! The system processed 5,404 orders in a single day. Our previous records hadn't exceeded 3,000 orders. Nice work!
Order limits have been removed and price movement amounts have changed.
Well, it's been a crazy week here at RealityMarkets.com. Some of the highlights:
1. Setting an all time order transaction record on Wednesday.
2. Setting an all time share trade record on Thursday of 120+ million shares.
3. Releasing a new version that saw order limits removed(most popular request), and numerous speed enhancements and optimizations to the site.
I'm planning on spending the next few days away from coding and beefing up the stock IPO's. There are numerous sporting stocks I want to add as well as put a dent into some of the stock suggestions and get them into the IPO stage.
The pricing algorithm has been adjusted. It now considers the timing of your trades in relation to each other. At the moment it's set pretty aggressively. I'll loosen it up a bit over the day.
The trading algorithm regarding frequency of trades by a user over a given time frame has been relaxed some more to allow more trades and price movement.
For reference, here is the original thread: Price Algorithm Adjusted
RealityMarkets.com traders correctly predicted that the US Unemployment Rate would increase for April. An increase was trading at $4.69 while a decrease was trading at $3.90 a share. An April increase traded above a decrease for the entire length of the contracts.
RealityMarkets.com traders correctly picked Utah(by $.55) and Toronto(by $.22) to win the 7th game to win their first round series. It was close, but then so was the series.
I've created RealityMarkets.com stock widgets for the indexes. The widgets will show the top five stocks in an index and also show a little description of the index. These widgets can be placed pretty much anywhere on the web, home pages, myspace pages, blogs, etc. To add a widget, click the Get Widget button below the stock charts on an index page. You will be taken to WidgetBox where you can fill in the details of where you want to put it.
Here's an example:
How are we doing picking the second round of the NBA Playoffs? So far so good. The Detroit Pistons and Utah Jazz were both picked to win from almost the get go. As for the remaining teams, the Cleveland Cavaliers are leading the New Jersey Nets by about $7 and the Phoenix Suns have a slight edge on the San Antonio Spurs. I guess a 3 point victory at the wire over a depleted Phoenix Suns wasn't enough to impress anyone.
There are two new features I want to highlight for everyone.
1. Order fill prices have been modified so that prices are filled between the start of the movement and the end of the movement. For instance in the old method, if a stock last traded at 10 and you bought it the price would go to 20 and your order would be filled at 20. Now if the stock trades at 10 and goes to 20 your order will be filled around 15. This also allows people to buy stock and be able to sell it back without a loss provided the orders are the same size. This should help to encourage some more risk taking in the stock buying.
2. You can now send private messages to each other. It's very basic at the moment but I will start adding more features to it. When viewing your list of messages there is a new button to send a message. Start entering the trader name you want to send the message to and it will start auto completing the form. If there are any problems let me know.
It looks like we did it again. RealityMarkets.com traders predicted that Jordin Sparks would be the American Idol winner. In fact, if you look at the graph, Jordin was on top from the beginning of it all. It's interesting to see the accuracy of the predictions even in stocks like these that have low trading volume vs some of the more popular stocks.
Traders on RealityMarkets.com also correctly predicted that Apolo Anton Ohno would win Dancing With The Stars. Ohno was also in the lead since the beginning of the competition. Nice work.
SoulRebel is the winner of the iPod shuffle with a 69,075.50% increase. Nice work SoulRebel.
Someone submitted the 2007 NBA Draft Stocks to nbadraftrumors.com. Tried voting but can't register. Anyone else having a problem? Looks like a useful site to get information although this year kinda seems like a forgone conclusion at this point.
I upgraded the first part of the pricing algorithm revision a few weeks back but I've been waiting on installing the last part until the competition was finished so as to avoid any nasty surprises or adverse affects on anyone's portfolio. I will likely be upgrading the last part this week at some point.
Some of the changes will include:
- equal price movements per share traded given the same share float.
- no more daily price movement limits.
- no more price movement limits based on previous orders traded.
- price movements that scale given the amount of share in the float. i.e. smaller floats create larger price movements per share traded and larger floats create smaller price movements per share traded.
My aim is to create a simple, more predictable price algorithm as well as one that better reflects the prices of stocks given the amount of shares held. Right now a big problem is that people can load up on a stock but then sell it off and the price doesn't drop accordingly. The most recent example is with the Pistons winning the Cavs-Pistons series. By the middle of game 6, there were less shares outstanding for the Pistons to win than for the Cavs to win yet the price was still higher for the Pistons to win.
Well, there was never any doubt it looks like among traders as to who would be the NBA Champions as the Spurs were in front once the final match-up was announced.
Once again, no real surprise as to who would be the number one draft pick. Gerg Oden was ahead by a mile in that index.
There's going to be a new contest starting soon, but before we start I want to hear what ideas people have for prizes. I would like to do a couple prizes this time. One for the top gainer as well as maybe the top loser? Or perhaps a random player? Let me know what you think.
The Splash Group in Australia has covered RealityMarkets.com in their latest newsletter.
Lately people have been inquiring as to what the status of RealityMarkets.com is and so I thought it would be best if I update everyone here. The short answer is RealityMarkets.com isn't going anywhere and will shortly be getting a pretty significant internal update that is already being tested.
The longer answer is that RealityMarkets.com has grown to a point where the systemsas it was originally designed is longer working properly. Witness the accounts with trillions of dollars and stock prices in the thousands of dollars. As a result of the unrealistic prices, share volumes and most importantly, the predictions, RealityMarkets.com will be under going a stock reset as well as an account reset to coincide with the new system coming online.
There will also be some changes to how stock prices move with the update and I will expand on that as we get closer to the new system rollout.
The new system should be uploaded within the next 24 hours and following that the new stocks will be added. Currently there are 20 new stocks loaded and ready to be turned on. There should be another larger batch coming a day or so after that.
Starting on Friday, December 14 there is a new trading system in place as well as other updates to RealityMarkets.com. Some of the changes include:
1. Stocks now will follow a more predictable range, 0 - 100.
2. Stock prices now directly reflect prediction; i.e. $67.5 Remars = 67.5% Probability.
3. Stocks payout at 100 if they happen, 0 if they don't.
4. Improved trade screen.
5. Improved charts.
6. Better Indexes
7. New stocks with more on the way!
As a result of these significant changes, the impact those changes will have on the prices, and the absurd amounts some stocks and players have achieved, we will be resetting everyone's portfolios back to $2,000,000 Remars on Sunday, December 16 after everyone has had some time to play with the new system. While we realize some people will be upset with this decision, we feel it will be best for everyone in the long run and will lead to a more enjoyable game.
We are going to be pushing back the account reset to the end of Monday. Here is the original block post: Site Updates and New Stocks
Caveat Bettor, per Diem is comparing the latest Zogby poll to the current Intrade predictions for the New Hampshire Primary. In both cases they agree that Obama and McCain will win which is also currently what RealityMarkets.com is predicting with John McCain at 59.92% and Barack Obama at 90.19%.
Today I am announcing the that RealityMarkets will now be available in a beta version on Facebook. The first version is a basic application that will allow you to see your portfolio, make trades, see quotes, show your performance on your profile page and view the indexes and sectors. As I start getting feedback I'll add features and make changes.
To add the application to your account go here: RealityMarkets On Facebook
Have fun!
According to this entry on MidasOracle.org, we are the first Prediction Market to debut on Facebook. Excellent!
I rolled out a site update this evening that should be largely transparent to everyone unless something went wrong. If you are noticing anything fishy let me know. Thanks!