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News Archives

December 25, 2006

Time For A Better Site News Method

Trying out a better way to disseminate news related to the development and progression of the site.

January 1, 2007

Latest Contest Winner: dibbs!

Latest Contest Winner: dibbs!

February 26, 2007

79th Academy Awards Prediction Results (3 for 3)

79th Academy Awards Prediction Results (3 for 3)

March 1, 2007

Site Bug Fixes

Site Bug Fixes

March 2, 2007

Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.

Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.

March 9, 2007

American Idol Stock Updates

Some more American Idol contestants went home last night. Say good bye to:
Antonella, Jared Cotter, Sabrina Sloan, Sundance Head.

American Idol Results

March 14, 2007

Mac OS X Leopard Ship Date Predictions

For those of you searching for news to help in your trading of OS X Leopard ship dates, here's a couple sites running their own (informal) predictions:

Apple OS X 10.5 ("Leopard") release date announcement imminent - says our calendar
OS X Leopard Release Date Prediction Tracker

Powered By Wikipedia? Yes we are.

There's an interesting article on VentureBeat about using Wikipedia when building your site. Thought it was a relevant read based on how much we use Wikipedia for Stock and Index backgrounds here. Now, if only we could automate the importing of relevant stock information.

Link: Are you powered by Wikipedia yet?

March 15, 2007

RealityMarkets.com Review

Chris Abraham gave us a great little writeup on his blog as a prediction market he recommends:

Really basic but also really easy to use. Instead of being a very specialized and highly-categorized prediction market based on politics or entertainment, this market is free form, which I think is a much more powerful strategy. The look and feel are very basic but I was up and running within minutes. Also, they offer you lots of money to trade at first and I wasted it all in one trade called, "Lindsay Lohan Sex Video," which is a market as to whether "a sex video of Lindsay Lohan surfaces on the Internet." I really like it.

Check out the rest of his blog, he covers a wide range of topics including social networking, politics, and blogging. Good stuff!

RealityMarkets.com Around The Web

We're linked from NewMexicoMatters.com with a bunch of other prediction markets. Additionally, they also highlighted our Bill Richardson Democratic Presidential Nominee stock. Thanks.

March 20, 2007

More OS X Ship Date Info

For what it's worth, here are some more sites predicting when Mac OS X Leopard will ship:

Mac OS X Leopard 10.5 - a May 2007 release?
More Leopard release date tomfoolery
SPECULATION: Leopard Coming out May 11, 2007? I doubt it...

More Views Than Inkling Markets?

I was doing some browsing around alexa.com the other day and came across some interesting stats. It appears that around the time we started rolling out the new site design, March 2nd, we also started picking up more page views. In fact, so much more that we surpassed inklingmarkets.com for most of the week. As anyone that does web publishing knows alexa scores should be taken with a grain of salt, but at least it's good to know that the new design is working well so far.
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RealityMarkets.com on Midas Oracle

I'm just catching up on my blogging and found out we were mentioned on MIdasOracle.org by Chris. F. Masse this past Friday. Chris Masse and MidasOracle are fantastic resources and it should be one of the first stops for anyone interested in learning more about the mechanics and science behind prediction markets. I visit the site daily and have it bookmarked in netnewswire. Thanks Chris!

March 22, 2007

Site Updates And Contest Starting Soon

There's been numerous cosmetic site changes and bug fixes over the last few days that are in preparation for starting the new contest. I have a couple more things to tick off before we get it started. If you haven't guessed it so far, the grand prize will be an iPod Shuffle. I know I've been saying it for a while, but it's coming at last.

I'll also be adding some new stocks from the latest round of suggestions.

XML/RSS Stock Data Feeds Now Open

I'm starting to open up the database and the first thing up is xml and rss data feeds for each stock. There are orange buttons next to the name that will give you the current stock info.

The use for the RSS link should be straightforward. You can subscribe to any of your favorite stocks in news readers like NetNewsWire, BlogLines, Google Reader, etc. This will allow you to better track stock price movements without having to visit the site.

The xml is more raw but also contains more data. If you were interested in incorporating stock data from RealityMarkets.com on your own site you would use that link and parse it to your needs. For instance, you could also use the data to create a widget for something like your myspace account. The possibilities are endless.

Have fun and let me know if you end up using the xml data. I'm interested in seeing what people do with it.

March 26, 2007

Project Red Stripe

Economist Magazine is running a contest called Project Red Stripe to solicit new and innovative ideas for the magazine. Prediction Markets are one of the top ideas at the moment. Midas Oracale has some comments on it as does Andrew Leigh.

March 31, 2007

RealityMarkets.com at SensoryMetrics.com

Jobe Roberts wrote up a blog post at SensoryMetrics.com on our Leopard Release Prediction Market.

From their site:

SensoryMetrics is led by a team of experienced professionals - former scientists from Nortel Networks and executives from anbiun - a company that invented personalized media for web-based commerce.

SensoryMetrics consultants are available for strategic User Experience design, innovation and IPR development.

Thanks Jobe!

April 2, 2007

Dancing With The Stars Commentary

Here's a blog called The Hollywood Gossip I came across that has some good Dancing With The Stars commentary that should help with your prediction trades.

Index: Dancing With The Stars 2007

April 3, 2007

2007 NCAA Tournament Over, How Did We Do?

March Madness is over so how did RealityMarkets.com do in predicting the the 2007 NCAA National Champions? Pretty good it would appear. We had Florida as the top stock since we launched the index at the beginning of the tournament.

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April 6, 2007

Marian Hossa Support

Someone still thinks Marian Hossa is going to pull out 100 points by the end of the season. It's going to go to the wire...

Stock: Marian Hossa 100 Points NHL Scoring

April 11, 2007

Busiest Trading Day For RealityMarkets.com

On Wednesday we had the busiest trading day in RealityMarkets.com history! The system processed 5,404 orders in a single day. Our previous records hadn't exceeded 3,000 orders. Nice work!

April 12, 2007

Order Limits Removed

Order limits have been removed and price movement amounts have changed.

April 15, 2007

The Week That Was

Well, it's been a crazy week here at RealityMarkets.com. Some of the highlights:

1. Setting an all time order transaction record on Wednesday.
2. Setting an all time share trade record on Thursday of 120+ million shares.
3. Releasing a new version that saw order limits removed(most popular request), and numerous speed enhancements and optimizations to the site.

I'm planning on spending the next few days away from coding and beefing up the stock IPO's. There are numerous sporting stocks I want to add as well as put a dent into some of the stock suggestions and get them into the IPO stage.

April 19, 2007

Price Algorithm Adjusted

The pricing algorithm has been adjusted. It now considers the timing of your trades in relation to each other. At the moment it's set pretty aggressively. I'll loosen it up a bit over the day.

April 23, 2007

Trading Algorithm Relaxed

The trading algorithm regarding frequency of trades by a user over a given time frame has been relaxed some more to allow more trades and price movement.

For reference, here is the original thread: Price Algorithm Adjusted

May 4, 2007

US Unemployment Rate for April

RealityMarkets.com traders correctly predicted that the US Unemployment Rate would increase for April. An increase was trading at $4.69 while a decrease was trading at $3.90 a share. An April increase traded above a decrease for the entire length of the contracts.

May 5, 2007

NBA Round One Results

RealityMarkets.com traders correctly picked Utah(by $.55) and Toronto(by $.22) to win the 7th game to win their first round series. It was close, but then so was the series.

May 6, 2007

Stock Index Widgets

I've created RealityMarkets.com stock widgets for the indexes. The widgets will show the top five stocks in an index and also show a little description of the index. These widgets can be placed pretty much anywhere on the web, home pages, myspace pages, blogs, etc. To add a widget, click the Get Widget button below the stock charts on an index page. You will be taken to WidgetBox where you can fill in the details of where you want to put it.

Here's an example:

May 17, 2007

Playoff Results

How are we doing picking the second round of the NBA Playoffs? So far so good. The Detroit Pistons and Utah Jazz were both picked to win from almost the get go. As for the remaining teams, the Cleveland Cavaliers are leading the New Jersey Nets by about $7 and the Phoenix Suns have a slight edge on the San Antonio Spurs. I guess a 3 point victory at the wire over a depleted Phoenix Suns wasn't enough to impress anyone.

May 18, 2007

New Features

There are two new features I want to highlight for everyone.

1. Order fill prices have been modified so that prices are filled between the start of the movement and the end of the movement. For instance in the old method, if a stock last traded at 10 and you bought it the price would go to 20 and your order would be filled at 20. Now if the stock trades at 10 and goes to 20 your order will be filled around 15. This also allows people to buy stock and be able to sell it back without a loss provided the orders are the same size. This should help to encourage some more risk taking in the stock buying.

2. You can now send private messages to each other. It's very basic at the moment but I will start adding more features to it. When viewing your list of messages there is a new button to send a message. Start entering the trader name you want to send the message to and it will start auto completing the form. If there are any problems let me know.

May 23, 2007

American Idol Results

It looks like we did it again. RealityMarkets.com traders predicted that Jordin Sparks would be the American Idol winner. In fact, if you look at the graph, Jordin was on top from the beginning of it all. It's interesting to see the accuracy of the predictions even in stocks like these that have low trading volume vs some of the more popular stocks.

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May 26, 2007

Dancing With The Stars Results

Traders on RealityMarkets.com also correctly predicted that Apolo Anton Ohno would win Dancing With The Stars. Ohno was also in the lead since the beginning of the competition. Nice work.

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June 1, 2007

Congrats to SoulRebel!

SoulRebel is the winner of the iPod shuffle with a 69,075.50% increase. Nice work SoulRebel.

June 2, 2007

NBA Draft Press

Someone submitted the 2007 NBA Draft Stocks to nbadraftrumors.com. Tried voting but can't register. Anyone else having a problem? Looks like a useful site to get information although this year kinda seems like a forgone conclusion at this point.

June 3, 2007

Price Algorithm Changes Part 2

I upgraded the first part of the pricing algorithm revision a few weeks back but I've been waiting on installing the last part until the competition was finished so as to avoid any nasty surprises or adverse affects on anyone's portfolio. I will likely be upgrading the last part this week at some point.

Some of the changes will include:
- equal price movements per share traded given the same share float.
- no more daily price movement limits.
- no more price movement limits based on previous orders traded.
- price movements that scale given the amount of share in the float. i.e. smaller floats create larger price movements per share traded and larger floats create smaller price movements per share traded.

My aim is to create a simple, more predictable price algorithm as well as one that better reflects the prices of stocks given the amount of shares held. Right now a big problem is that people can load up on a stock but then sell it off and the price doesn't drop accordingly. The most recent example is with the Pistons winning the Cavs-Pistons series. By the middle of game 6, there were less shares outstanding for the Pistons to win than for the Cavs to win yet the price was still higher for the Pistons to win.

June 20, 2007

Spurs NBA Champions

Well, there was never any doubt it looks like among traders as to who would be the NBA Champions as the Spurs were in front once the final match-up was announced.

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June 29, 2007

Greg Oden NBA Draft

Once again, no real surprise as to who would be the number one draft pick. Gerg Oden was ahead by a mile in that index.

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August 6, 2007

New Contest

There's going to be a new contest starting soon, but before we start I want to hear what ideas people have for prizes. I would like to do a couple prizes this time. One for the top gainer as well as maybe the top loser? Or perhaps a random player? Let me know what you think.

September 13, 2007

RealityMarkets.com in The Press

The Splash Group in Australia has covered RealityMarkets.com in their latest newsletter.

December 10, 2007

Site Updates and New Stocks

Lately people have been inquiring as to what the status of RealityMarkets.com is and so I thought it would be best if I update everyone here. The short answer is RealityMarkets.com isn't going anywhere and will shortly be getting a pretty significant internal update that is already being tested.

The longer answer is that RealityMarkets.com has grown to a point where the systemsas it was originally designed is longer working properly. Witness the accounts with trillions of dollars and stock prices in the thousands of dollars. As a result of the unrealistic prices, share volumes and most importantly, the predictions, RealityMarkets.com will be under going a stock reset as well as an account reset to coincide with the new system coming online.

There will also be some changes to how stock prices move with the update and I will expand on that as we get closer to the new system rollout.

December 13, 2007

New Stocks And System Update Imminent

The new system should be uploaded within the next 24 hours and following that the new stocks will be added. Currently there are 20 new stocks loaded and ready to be turned on. There should be another larger batch coming a day or so after that.

December 14, 2007

Site Updates and New Stocks

Starting on Friday, December 14 there is a new trading system in place as well as other updates to RealityMarkets.com.  Some of the changes include:

1. Stocks now will follow a more predictable range, 0 - 100.
2. Stock prices now directly reflect prediction; i.e. $67.5 Remars = 67.5% Probability.
3. Stocks payout at 100 if they happen, 0 if they don't.
4. Improved trade screen.
5. Improved charts.
6. Better Indexes
7. New stocks with more on the way!

As a result of these significant changes, the impact those changes will have on the prices, and the absurd amounts some stocks and players have achieved, we will be resetting everyone's portfolios back to $2,000,000 Remars on Sunday, December 16 after everyone has had some time to play with the new system. While we realize some people will be upset with this decision, we feel it will be best for everyone in the long run and will lead to a more enjoyable game.

December 16, 2007

Account Resets

We are going to be pushing back the account reset to the end of Monday. Here is the original block post: Site Updates and New Stocks

January 7, 2008

Caveat Bettor, per Diem: Intrade v Zogby for New Hampshire

Caveat Bettor, per Diem is comparing the latest Zogby poll to the current Intrade predictions for the New Hampshire Primary. In both cases they agree that Obama and McCain will win which is also currently what RealityMarkets.com is predicting with John McCain at 59.92% and Barack Obama at 90.19%.

February 1, 2008

RealityMarkets On Facebook

Today I am announcing the that RealityMarkets will now be available in a beta version on Facebook. The first version is a basic application that will allow you to see your portfolio, make trades, see quotes, show your performance on your profile page and view the indexes and sectors. As I start getting feedback I'll add features and make changes.

To add the application to your account go here: RealityMarkets On Facebook

Have fun!

February 13, 2008

More Facebook

According to this entry on MidasOracle.org, we are the first Prediction Market to debut on Facebook. Excellent!

February 21, 2008

Site Maintenance

I rolled out a site update this evening that should be largely transparent to everyone unless something went wrong. If you are noticing anything fishy let me know. Thanks!

February 22, 2008

Prediction Markets in Enterprise 2.0

ZDNet.com has an article up about 12 predictions for Enterprise Web 2.0 in 2008 that features prediction markets or as they are calling them "Collective intelligence platforms and enterprise decision management support applications":

8. Collective intelligence platforms and enterprise decision management support applications will see significant early adoption this year. Prediction markets, such as those from Inkling Markets and Consensus Point, began to get on business leader’s radar in 2007 and are poised for early growth this year and are ostensibly the end game of “real” Web 2.0 applications: harnessing the intelligence on the edge of our networks. Predictions from companies like Gartner are also putting a lot of stock in enterprise decision management (EDM) this year but both will see only early adoption this year with 2009 being the primary growth year.

I highlight this here because we've been watching this space of the market and haven't been sitting idly by while it happens. Hopefully we'll have more to report shortly.

Check out the rest of the article, it's an interesting read.

March 10, 2008

Google Prediction Markets and Trade Volume

The Industry Standard has written up an overview on the prediction markets Google runs internally to improve their business decisions as well as learn how employees exchange information. A little tidbit caught my eye:

With about 1,500 employees making 80,000 "trades" over the past two and a half years, Google officials say it's the largest corporate experiment with prediction markets they are aware of.

The reason this caught my eye was because we have about a third of the users but have done about 180,000 trades in a year and a half. It's interesting to see the differences in trade volume between our groups of people.

March 14, 2008

Short Sales Released

Some of you may have noticed a change this week to the account portfolio page that added a short position category to your portfolio and were wondering how to actually short a stock. Starting today you will be able to enter short orders on the trade screens where all your other orders are entered. Just select it from the drop down menu where you normally select buy or sell. A Short is how you open a short position and a Cover is how you close out a short position. Beware, if you Cover a short position and the price is higher than when you opened the short position, you will owe money to close it out.

May 3, 2008

New Site Updates

As you can already tell, there's been some visual site updates to the site but I've also added some behind the scenes changes.

A recap of the changes.

1. New homepage graphics and modified layout.

2. Broke up the comment and stock summaries on the homepage into tabs accessible via the "View: Market Activity | Comments & Site News" links below the main graphic.

3. Improved side navigation. Clicking on the word in the navigation menu will take you to a page showing all the index questions related to that category. If you liked the old way with the drop down menus, just click the plus sign at the end of each category and you will get the original drop down menu.

4. Improved the input fields for stock comments and trader comments.

5. Comment email notifications. When someone responds to a comment you left on a stock or trader profile you will receive an email telling you so. You can turn this feature off in your account info page.

6. Payout email notifications. When a stock you own pays out you will receive an email notification highlighting what you made or lost similar to the trading messages you already receive. You can turn this feature off in your account info page as well.

May 28, 2008

Reality Markets and Intrade Announce Collaboration

DUBLIN/PARK CITY, May 28, 2008 -- Intrade and Reality Markets announced today that they have reached an understanding to explore areas of collaboration that would mutually benefit the memberships of both prediction market platforms and prediction market users generally.

These include:

  • The adoption of a standardized event market specifications starting with Reality Markets listing Intrade markets and prices on its platform
  • Cooperation in developing future event market categories and contracts
  • Cooperation in exploring the feasibility of each exchange offering the other's markets and market data.

Intrade CEO John Delaney said, "We are very pleased to pursue areas of common interest with Reality Markets and all prediction market platform operators.  For prediction markets to achieve their full potential, moving closer to a seamless marketplace will become ever more important to market participants.  We look forward to working with Reality Markets and other platform operators to expand the availability of standardized markets and specifications to prediction market users."
 
Brad Stewart, Chief Executive Officer of Reality Markets said "Intrade is considered the leading prediction market platform and we are very pleased to co-operate with them.  By adopting a common event market specification we will make it easier for users of prediction markets to observe arbitrage opportunities, and move between platforms to exploit these opportunities and improve the quality of the information."
 
About Intrade: Intrade is the worlds leading prediction market platform.  Members trade on unique markets and by so doing generate information on the likelihood of the underlying event occurring. Intrade and the predictive information generated by its members have been featured on ABC, CNBC, FOX, CNN, Bloomberg, Fortune & others.   Subscribe to Intrade News on RSS: http://www.intrade.com/news/newsRss.xml
 
Contact: John Delaney, CEO, Intrade
Telephone: 011 353 1 6200 300
Email: john.delaney@intrade.com
www.intrade.com

About Reality Markets: Reality Markets is a prediction market trading platform.  Members are able to trade on events markets that they are passionate and opinionated about.  By aggregating the predictions of the diverse community of participants, Reality Markets and its members generate accurate predictive information on the likelihood of specific events occurring.  
 
Contact: Brad Stewart, CEO, Reality Markets
Telephone: 435-602-9142
Email: brad@realitymarkets.com
www.realitymarkets.com
 
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June 4, 2008

More On Intrade And Reality Markets

I published a post on Midas Oracle that has some more details on our relationship with Intrade. Here is an excerpt:

On Wednesday, RealityMarkets.com and Intrade announced a collaboration agreement, the center of which was the announcement of Standard Markets. The press release to the announcement is linked below but I wanted to use this post to talk a little bit more about what was behind the collaboration.

The rest is here: Reality Markets and InTrade announce collaboration

June 10, 2008

Some Site Changes

I've updated the index names in the navigation menu while still preserving the longer name when you view the index. I'm hoping this improves the navigation and makes it easier to find things at a glance. Let me know what you think.

I've also changed around some html so if anything looks weird let me know.

Thanks.

June 11, 2008

Prizes Are Back

tuesday.pngFor those that have been trading for a while you'll remember I used to do prizes on RealityMarkets and that I've also been saying for a while that prizes would be returning. They are back today. Right now I am giving away 3, $10 gift certificates to iTunes to the top 3 traders from the last 14 days as of the trading close on Tuesday. The list is attached.

Going forward I hope to do smaller prizes to more people more frequently than just one large prize every few months. I also want to give prizes away for different categories, ie most trades, biggest loser, most referrals, etc. At this point I'm not quite sure if I am going to do formal contests or just do random dates.

Let me know what you think about contest dates and anything else.

August 26, 2008

New Stocks

I'll be putting up some new stocks tomorrow.

November 24, 2008

Exploring Strategic Options

Following a comprehensive review of our web holdings, we have announced our decision to explore potential strategic options with regards to RealityMarkets.com designed to best enhance value for our customers. Although we cannot predict when, or if, any specific transaction will occur, we remain committed to operating RealityMarkets.com until a suitable option can be identified.

About Reality Markets: Reality Markets is a prediction market trading platform. Members are able to trade on events markets that they are passionate and opinionated about. By aggregating the predictions of the diverse community of participants, Reality Markets and its members generate accurate predictive information on the likelihood of specific events occurring.

December 3, 2008

RealityMarkets.com For Sale

We have listed RealityMarkets.com for sale on ebay.

About News

This page contains an archive of all entries posted to RealityMarkets.com Site Blog in the News category. They are listed from oldest to newest.

IPO's is the previous category.

Research is the next category.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.